In 2015, diesel engines made up 98.5% of the North American Class 8 vehicle market, but a new study’s forecast expects this dominance to lessen by 2021, according ACT Research Co. and Rhein Associates.

“This new report details current and future OEM offerings, the engine-related regulations in the pipeline and the impact of these regulations on the market, as well as our forecast for the North American commercial vehicle engine industry through 2021,” said Tom Rhein, president of Rhein Associates. “For instance, the Class 8 production was split 75.5% tractor to 24.5% truck in 2015, but we expect the truck share to grow as explained in the report.”

“We see captive engines gain in market share, as in-house models increase and displacements are reduced,” said Ken Vieth, ACT’s senior partner and general manager. “While we don’t expect a complete reversal by 2021, the industry is certainly going through a transition. Diesel dominates, but the share will narrow, and non-captive engines are likely to decline, barring any unforeseen circumstances. With the impending GHG Phase Two regulations and growth of vertical integration across the supply chain, and with the constant push for engine efficiencies and reduced emissions simultaneously, now seemed like the time to apply our models and expertise collaboratively to provide intel unlike any other available.”

The N.A. On-highway CV Engine Outlook, available now, is designed to present historical trends, current activity and forecasts of engine demand in on-highway commercial vehicles. The report analyzes significant trends in engine displacement, engine type (diesel, gasoline, natural gas, and other), captive versus non-captive engines and premium vs. non-premium power for Class 8 vehicles.