According to the latest numbers from FTR, U.S. Trailer net orders for March came in at 13,800 units, down 35% from February and 39% from March 2015. The monthly order activity was the lowest since July 2013, and well below FTR’s expectations. Despite the weak numbers for March, backlogs are down only 6% year-over-year.
Dump trailers were the strongest of any trailer segment with all others showing weakness month-over-month. Overall March trailer build remained flat on a per day level for the third consecutive month; however, refrigerated van build was up 11% m/m per day.
“The long, strong run of the trailer market finally appears to be moderating,” said Don Ake, FTR’s vice president of commercial vehicles. “Backlogs are still robust, so production should be steady for the next several months. However, production on a per day level has been unusually flat the first three months of 2016, and the low order total in March will put absolutely no upward pressure on build. Dry van orders were weak because the vast majority of fleets placed their 2016 orders from August 2015 through February 2016. A large chunk of these orders were to replace older units that were not upgraded due to the aftermath of the Great Recession. The big question now is how solid the backlog will be if the economy remains stagnant.”
ACT Research told a similar story in its State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report, stating that trailer net orders fell 30% month-over-month and 36% year-over-year in March.
“The 2015-16 order season ended not with a bang but a whimper, which was not entirely surprising given the dramatic front-loading this order season,” said Frank Maly, director of CV transportation analysis and research at ACT. “Long backlogs helped encourage fleets to make quick decisions and although cancellations increased sequentially, the rise was relatively small and appeared to be a selective adjustment to commitments rather than any widespread movement.”
He added that seasonal patterns project March to be the backlog peak, but this season’s orders came so early that the backlog peak actually occurred in December 2015.
