Slightly lowered forecasts, impact on freight economy deepens

Slightly lowered forecasts, impact on freight economy deepens

In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported slightly lowered forecasts due to the Fed’s continued action toward inflation, disproportionally impacting the freight economy.

According to Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst, ACT, “ACT’s forecasts into the medium term move incrementally lower this month on the continued deterioration of economic expectations: Inflation looks more stubborn and the Federal Reserve’s increasingly resolute rhetoric shows a willingness to do whatever is required to bring inflation to long-term targets of around 2%.”

On the freight economy, Vieth added, “Importantly, for an industry that relies on the manufacturing and distribution of goods, changes to economic expectations are even more impactful to the freight economy: ACT’s freight composite drops as rates sensitive economic sectors (durables, investment, housing) are disproportionally impacted.” He concluded, “Spot rates continued to edge lower in September. ACT’s aggregation of DAT’s rate data showed slight sequential deterioration in spot freight rates on an absolute as well as seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. September spot rates averaged $1.96 net fuel, down 3.0% from August, while the SA spot rate declined 4.0%. Anecdotes indicate that contract rate negotiations are running south of -10%.”

The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis from a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report includes a relevant but high-level forecast summary, complete with transportation insights for use by commercial vehicle dealer executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the total US trailer market, used truck sales information, and a review of the US macro economy.

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