The continued impact of supply-chain constrained production
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Heavy-duty

The continued impact of supply-chain constrained production

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Preliminary NA Class 8 net orders in December were 22,800 units, while NA Classes 5-7 net orders dropped to 18,100 units, a significant sequential uptick for Class 8 but lower m/m and y/y readings for the medium-duty market. Complete industry data for December, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT Research in mid-January.

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“For Class 8, with backlogs stretching through 2022 and still no clear visibility on the easing of the everything shortage, modest December net orders reflect OEMs taking a more cautious approach to effectively manage the cycle of customer expectations,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. He continued, “As well, with a 12-month BL/BU ratio, and the industry only reporting units scheduled to be built within 12 months, some of the current order constraint is built into the data collection process: If the BL/BU is 12 months, new orders are ultimately consigned to the level of industry production.

“After hitting a [Class 8] cancellation speed-bump in November,” he continued, “orders rebounded to a level just above the second half of 2021 production trend in December. However, while improved, December’s orders were the second weakest of the year, reflecting ongoing supply-side shortages that continue to constrain production. Importantly, we reiterate, with critical economic and industry demand drivers at, or near, record levels, industry strength is exhibited in long backlog lead-times, rather than in seasonally weak orders.”

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ACT’s State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Vehicles report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing activity-related measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales. Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations. The Class 8 market is segmented into trucks and tractors, with and without sleeper cabs. The report includes a six-month industry build plan, a backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package. A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.

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