FTR reports that preliminary North American Class 8 net orders for October were 24,500 units, down 12% from September and down 39% year-over-year. Class 8 orders have stayed within the 23,000 to 28,000-unit range for five of the last six months as OEMs deal with production issues. Class 8 orders now total 437,000 units for the previous 12 months.

OEMs are still finding it difficult to manage orders that will not get built this year due to component shortages, FTR notes. Production rates in Q1 remain uncertain due to supply chain difficulties and worker availability. OEMs continue to be careful not to overbook fleet orders for the first half of 2022.

“The OEMs are having tremendous difficulty planning production for Q1,” said Don Ake, vice president of commercial vehicles for FTR. “Unfinished orders are rolling over from 2021 and there are fleets placing new orders for 2022 delivery. All these fleets are desperate for new trucks and the challenge for the OEMs is to book the maximum production possible without excessive overbooking.

“The OEMs are using different methods in managing the backlog. Some are canceling 2021 orders and rebooking those orders in 2022, sometimes at higher prices, as commodity and other costs remain elevated. Others are only booking a limited number of orders every month.

“It is interesting that the order rate has been basically tracking the production rate since May, with a couple of exceptions. It indicates that the market is essentially frozen in this range of around 22,000 to 26,000 trucks. Without the clogged supply chain, production would be significantly higher, and orders would be elevated also.”