Downturn forecasts fine-tuned, anticipating inbound recession

Downturn forecasts fine-tuned, anticipating inbound recession

In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported shifts—both higher and lower adjustments (but in aggregate, lower still)—in forecasts last month to incorporate an inbound recession. According to Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst, ACT, “We have tweaked our economic forecasts slightly lower. 2023 GDP remains unchanged at 0.0%, but our expectations for 2022 slip 20bps to 1.4%.

There are some moving pieces here, with a higher 2022 forecast, but lower 2023,” he continued. “The higher 2022 forecast largely reflects better-than-expected June build and slightly higher near-term expectations, as supply-chain constraints moderate and the OEMs work to sate pent-up demand. To that general commentary, the combination of falling freight rates, higher operating costs, rising interest rates and falling used equipment valuations are likely to be adding turbulence to the market as we move into 2023.”

The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis from a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report includes a relevant but high-level forecast summary, complete with transportation insights for use by commercial vehicle dealer executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the total US trailer market, used truck sales information, and a review of the US macro economy.

“While we are marking our forecast down, 2023 is still projected to be a very good year, just not as good as we were expecting as tailwinds are blowing less hard amid rising headwinds,” he concluded.

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