The Commercial Motor Vehicle Consulting (CMVC) CV Parts Aftermarket Leading Indicator (PLI) decreased slightly in January 2013 from December 2012. The PLI is a short-term forecasting indicator of U.S. commercial vehicle parts aftermarket sales trends due to changes in fleets’ business environments as a result of change in the business cycle.
PLI has been trending downward since August 2012, implying fleet business conditions have been softening, but appears to be stabilizing. Cited are fleet factors, including changes to operations, such as the temporary idling of trucks, returning leased trucks prematurely, reducing truck capacity and other strategies that indirectly slow the rate of depreciation of the truck population resulting in lower parts aftermarket sales.
Following a slight dip in Class 8 fleet capacity utilization during the spring and summer of 2012, fleet capacity utilization has recovered implying the truck population is depreciating at normal rates. Fleets have the capacity in place to meet moderate growth in freight volumes/business sales, so the truck population will remain relatively stable in the near term, CMVC concludes. Changes in the vehicle population ultimately impact parts aftermarket sales as the vehicle population determines the install base of parts.