According to trucking data aggregators, January trailer orders, while down slightly compared to December, experienced a significant year-over-year jump.
ACT Research Co. had the numbers up 92% year-over-year but down 6% month-over-month. “While 2017 order season timing has lagged, recent order activity indicates a substantive, positive change in fleet confidence,” said Frank Maly, ACT’s director of CV transportation analysis and research. “Later trailer order commitments may portend somewhat later delivery dates, more in line with reports of a ‘back loading’ of available 2017 C8 build slots.”
Dry van net orders were reported at 25,500 units, with seasonal adjustment making January the best month since September 2015. “Using seasonal adjustment, dry van orders the past three months have been booked at a 237,000-unit annualized rate, more than double the 114,000-unit rate experienced the preceding three months,” said Maly. “Moving in the opposite direction, reefer van orders moderated following robust order activity through Q4.”
FTR’s numbers, meanwhile had final January net trailer orders at 32,800 units, down 4% m/m but up 86% y/y. Backlogs likewise jumped for the third straight month to very healthy levels. Dry van orders were very sturdy, up a huge 146% y/y, but reefers orders slowed, down 52% from December. Trailer orders have totaled 234,000 units for the past twelve months. Production did start off the year weaker, but was generally close to FTR’s expectations and up 8% m/m.
“It appears the trailer order cycle has shifted back a few months this year,” said Don Ake, FTR’s vice president of commercial vehicles. “Instead of starting in September or October, the order season began in November. This resulted in an unusually high number of orders in January. Uncertainty over the presidential election is probably the reason for this. Business confidence is running high, so we still got our traditional run of three months of strong orders, it just came later than typical.”
“This is another good sign for trucking, freight and the economy for 2017,” he continued. “Fleets are showing confidence in the market by placing a strong number of requirement orders for the year. These are not all replacement orders, so some fleets are expecting to expand sometime this year. The strength is centered on dry vans, however. The vocational segments have bottomed out, and have not really began a recovery, very similar to Class 8 trucks.”
