According to ACT Research, preliminary net trailer orders fell nominally from February to March. At 13,600 units, orders were also down 24% compared to last March 2023. ACT adds that seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the cycle leaves March’s tally essentially unchanged at 13,800 units. This, ACT said, matches predictions of a “year of transition” in the industry,

“While we remain cautiously optimistic and don’t believe this year will be catastrophic for the trailer markets in general, we note that 2024 thus far is matching expectations as a year of transition,” said Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research and publications at ACT Research. “While some specialty segments have no available build slots until late in 2024 at the earliest, the industry’s largest segments remain under pressure, and cancellations are anticipated to continue their oscillation into and out of elevator territory as dealers and fleets recalibrate their inventory and immediate needs.”

“This month’s results continue to support our thesis that when fleets don’t make money, their ability and/or willingness to purchase equipment is muted,” McNealy continued. “For the trailer industry, this is compounded by the power-unit prebuy ahead of the EPA’s implementation of 2027 regulations, which we believe has already begun. As a result, cancellations remain elevated, and the choice about how to spend limited capex dollars is swinging the pendulum against trailer purchases right now.”