Some while ago, I was at an industry meeting and heard the head of a major trucking association say, “If all economists who forecast the future of the trucking industry were laid end-to-end, it would be a good thing.” He got a laugh at the time, but even then I took exception with his position. I consider economists to be rather like weather forecasters. They’re pretty much right some of the time but never completely right all the time.

I check the weather forecast when I go out on an “iffy” looking day to see what I might be facing even though I know perfectly well that it might well be wrong, but one must play the odds. I think most folks do the same.

I believe economic forecasts can play a similar role in business planning. Sure, some are good and some not so good, but that’s up to you to find the best. We all need to make plans, and when we do, we need information on which to base those plans. Maintenance files are great sources for historical data, much of which you can expect to repeat in the future. But that information is limited to your own fleet. How about what’s expected to happen out in the big world? Economic forecasts can help, but remember that they may well be only as good as weather forecasts.

With that said, I’d like to provide you with some of the information presented by industry economists at a recent two-day meeting organized by the National Truck Equipment Association and the National Trailer Dealers Association. Called the 2008 Business and Market Planning Summit, its first day featured a session providing insights into business planning processes. The second day brought together five economists from several market segments, providing participants with industry projections and outlooks.

William Strauss, senior economist and economic advisor for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, pointed out that oil prices are near all-time highs, a fact all too familiar to trucking companies. Yet, he said that, adjusted for inflation, they are well below early 1980s prices. In a similar way, while overall expenditures on energy increased over the past few years, they remain below the historical average. He also indicated that manufacturing capacity utilization remains high.

Mark Vitner, senior economist and director of corporate investment banking for Wachovia Corp., presented information on what the recent financial market volatility means for the U.S. economy –– in particular, the influence of the subprime mortgage crisis on the all-important home building segment of the economy. “Home sales peaked about two years ago and are now more than halfway through a major correction,” he said. “Sales should bottom out by the end of the year. Residential construction should bottom out in 2008.” Not too rosy of a picture!

According to Martin Labbe, president and CEO of Martin Labbe Associates, the Class 8 market continues to show instability and Classes 6 and 7 were weakened due to housing, but state and local purchases can be expected to pick up the slack. Classes 3 to 5 jumped due to reclassification.

Eli Lustgarten, senior vice president of Longbow Securities and president of ESL Consultants Inc., suggests that economic growth should be better from the second half of this year and into next. In general, he said the U.S. economy’s industrial sector is regaining momentum after a slow start for the year and that a recovery is on track. “We do not expect much more than stabilization for the truck sector, construction equipment (with residential markets at best stabilizing) and automobiles,” he said.

Steve Latin-Kasper, market data and research director for the NTEA, expects that commercial truck sales will experience a slow recovery after the first quarter of 2008, while heavy-duty sales are likely to grow faster in 2008 than those for medium-duty trucks.

So now you know, with whatever level of confidence you have in economic predictions, what the future holds. Use the information to make your plans for next year. They should be at least as good as most weather forecasts.