U.S. freight market bouncing along the cycle bottom

U.S. freight market bouncing along the cycle bottom

Driver capacity models suggest the record declines in freight rates should be pushing out more jobs.

According to the latest release of the Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate and Volume Outlook report from ACT Research, driver capacity models suggest the record declines in freight rates should be pushing out more jobs, generating the kind of creative destruction needed to set up the next cycle, while tremors in the LTL market could press the industry rebalancing forward.

Courtesy of ACT Research

“While there may be capacity reduction in LTL soon, fleets are focused on retention despite record rate reductions, resulting in a gradual rebalancing,” shared Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst. “The preliminary BLS data set, which we think gets closest to drivers, added 2,300 jobs in May, defying gravity for now. Some of this probably came from the owner-operator community, where net revocations of DOT operating authorities continue apace. We estimate another 12,400 total revocations of operating authority and 2,950 net revocations in May, bringing the total contraction in the industry since last October to over 15,000 fleets.”

Courtesy of ACT Research

Capacity rebalancing is well under way, albeit slower than expected, and demand is poised to gradually recover from the soft levels of the past five or six quarters, so the fundamentals for a recovery are in place, according to the company’s press release.

“The spot market is continuing to rebalance with net revocations still at record rates. Even as the overall market is still on the loose side, the pendulum has started to swing,” Denoyer concluded. “The trajectory of spot rates has changed in the past couple of months, and we think demand fundamentals are likely to improve from here as we pass the worst of the destock. So, more freight market dynamics are in store down the road.”

You May Also Like

Volvo, Westport joint venture to reduce long haul CO2 emissions

The companies anticipate that the joint venture will become operational in Q2 of 2024.

westport-logo-volvo-reducing-carbon-dioxide-co2-emissions

The Volvo Group and Westport Fuel Systems have signed an agreement to establish a joint venture to speed up commercialization and global adoption of Westport's High Pressure Direct Injection (HPDI) fuel system technology for long-haul and off-road applications.

High Pressure Direct Injection (HPDI) is a fuel system technology which can be applied in ICE vehicles to replace greenhouse gas-emitting fuels, like diesel, with carbon-neutral or zero-carbon fuels like biogas or hydrogen, according to Volvo.

EPA finalizes Phase 3, slows stringency before MY 2032

The new emissions standards are expected to improve public health and air quality, while giving companies enough lead time to meet the goals.

EPA-emissions-trucking-generic
Kodiak and Martin Brower partner for autonomous delivery

Martin Brower and Kodiak are making 8 autonomous food deliveries per week to quick service restaurants between Dallas and Oklahoma City.

Kodiak-Robotics-Martin-Brower-autonomous-partnership
CARB’s Clean Truck Check testing pushed back to 2025

This delay is only for required inspections, meaning fleets and owner/operators are still expected to register and pay fees.

truck-lights-generic
XL Specialized names Canadian sales manager

Richard Minotti is going to step into the role, through which the company aims to broaden its reach into the Canadian market.

Richard-Minotti-Headshot-XL-Specialized-trailers

Other Posts

S&P Global Mobility: U.S. commercial truck market beat expectations

According to new CV registrations in 2023, 45% of upfitted vehicles are being used as service/utility vehicles, or as dry freight vans.

Generic-commercial-vehicle-market-data-sp-global-mobility-upfitting
Kenworth Chillicothe marks 50 years of production

Since opening its doors on March 4, 1974, Kenworth’s Chillicothe, OH plant has produced more than 782,000 trucks.

Kenworth-Chillicothe-Ohio-employees-50-year-anniversary
Mack announces 2023 Dealer of the Year winners

The Mack North American Dealer of the Year award for 2023 was presented to Nextran Truck Centers of Tuscumbia, Alabama.

Mack-Nextran-NA-Dealer-of-the-Year
Two Volvo VNR Electric trucks will kick off new California pilot program

Volvo says the VNR battery-electric trucks are ideal for drayage operations due to their operational efficiency in tight spaces.

Volvo-VNR-ONE-Electric-Truck-Program-Drayage